六抛国储糖 难斗“糖高宗”?6 throw a country store is candy fought hard ” candy Gao Zong ” ? 六拋國儲糖 難鬥“糖高宗”?

  时报讯  (记者  战旗  赵磊)近日,郑州期糖达到7000元/吨关口,“糖高宗”又有卷土重来之势。为抑制糖价进一步上行,7月6日,国家2010/2011榨季国储糖竞卖于下午16:55结束,这是本榨季国家第六次抛售国储糖。根据发改委计划,除去本次抛储,国储将在9月前继续抛储30万吨。 

  7-8月份是糖的传统需求旺季,需求扩大可能再次凸显糖市供不应求的矛盾。北京中期天津营业部分析师米亚南认为,5月抛储时国内期糖价格刚刚在整个大宗商品的止跌企稳的配合下完成探底,抛储价格低于产区的现货报价,反映出食糖供应没有想象的那样短缺。 

  爱建证券研究员吴正武认为,我国白糖价格呈现周期性波动,从2009年开始我国白糖价格走出谷底,处于周期上涨阶段。白糖价格上涨的根本原因是国际和国内扩张性货币政策。长期看,我国糖价大周期顶部已过,但由于国内白糖供不应求状况短期也不会改变,所以2011年下半年我国糖价回落幅度预计比较小。 

  不过,大越期货分析师陈顺平则认为,国内糖价上涨主要是受到外盘原糖期货大涨和国内食糖现货市场良好产销数据的双重影响。“即使7月5日确定政府有25万吨中央储备糖投放市场,也没有挡住其继续上行趋势,可见,在实际供给仍是偏紧的情势下,白糖价格进一步走高已经得到大多数投资者的认同,看多白糖已经成为市场的主流。相信在做多力量不断推动下,白糖当能有更大的上涨空间。” 

  “糖高宗”卷土重来,对下游产业造成了影响。饮料行业受到波及最大。据记者了解,饮料行业两三成的成本来自于糖,糖价的上涨,必然导致饮料行业利润下降。记者注意到,目前一些整箱汽水的批发价格悄然提升。此外,食品、乳品、罐头、餐饮企业也面临着糖价上涨带来的成本压力。如果糖价再度上涨趋势不能得到有效遏制,未来占CPI权重最大的食品类指数仍可能继续上行,紧缩政策仍有可能再度出台。



下面是王怡汶翻译所得
Times dispatch (Reporter Battle banner Zhao Lei) recently, zhengzhou period candy achieves 7000 yuan / ton col, “Candy Gao Zong ” the power that has stage a come back again. Price of the refine sugar that it is curb goes up further, on July 6, national 2010/2011 extracts season country store candy contest sells afternoon 16:55 ends, this is this country that extract season the 6th undersell country store candy. Change according to sending appoint plan, eliminate this second cast store, country store will continue to cast before September store 300 thousand tons.

7-8 month is the traditional demand busy season of candy, demand enlarge may highlight the contradiction that candy city demands exceeds supply again greatly. Mi Yana of analyst of business department of Beijing metaphase Tianjin thinks, will cast in May period sugar price just is in inside Chu Shiguo of whole heavy goods stop drop look forward to cooperates firmly to lay foundation of the sound that finish, cast store the price quotes under the merchandise on hand that produces a division, report gives sugar to supply what did not imagine to be in short supply in that way.

Love builds Wu Zhengwu of negotiable securities researcher to think, price of our country white sugar appears periodic wave motion, begin price of our country white sugar to walk out of cereal bottom from 2009, be in cycle to rise level. The prime cause that white sugar rises in price is international and domestic outspread sex monetary policy. Look for a long time, big periodic top already passed price of our country sugar, but because domestic white sugar demands exceeds supply the state is short-term also won’t change, so extent of fall after a rise of price of sugar of our country of second half of the year predicted to compare 2011 small.

Nevertheless, jump over futures analyst Chen Shunping to think greatly, domestic sugar price rises basically is outside getting dish raw sugar futures rises greatly and domestic sugar spot market is good the dual impact of data of produce and sale. “Although will decide the government has candy of 250 thousand tons of central reserve to put in the market on July 5, also did not hold off its to continue to go up trend, visible, furnishing actually still is to slant below tight situation, white sugar price goes high to had gotten the self-identity of most investor further, see much white sugar had made the main trend of the market. Believe to doing much power to be driven ceaselessly, white sugar is become can have bigger rise space. White sugar is become can have bigger rise space..

“Candy Gao Zong ” stage a come back, caused an effect to downstream industry. Beverage industry is affected the biggest. According to reporter understanding, two 3 become cost come from beverage industry at candy, of sugar price rise, bring about beverage industry profit to drop necessarily. The reporter notices, at present the wholesale price of soda water of a few entire case promotes sadly. In addition, enterprise of food, milkings, potted, meal also is faced with sugar price to rise brought cost pressure. If sugar price rises once more,the trend cannot get effective keep within limits, future takes the provision with CPI the greatest weight kind the index still may continue to go up, constrictive policy still comes on stage once more likely.



下面是陳瀅宇翻译所得
  時報訊  (記者  戰旗  趙磊)近日,鄭州期糖達到7000元/噸關口,“糖高宗”又有卷土重來之勢。為抑制糖價進一步上行,7月6日,國傢2010/2011榨季國儲糖競賣於下午16:55結束,這是本榨季國傢第六次拋售國儲糖。根據發改委計劃,除去本次拋儲,國儲將在9月前繼續拋儲30萬噸。 

  7-8月份是糖的傳統需求旺季,需求擴大可能再次凸顯糖市供不應求的矛盾。北京中期天津營業部分析師米亞南認為,5月拋儲時國內期糖價格剛剛在整個大宗商品的止跌企穩的配合下完成探底,拋儲價格低於產區的現貨報價,反映出食糖供應沒有想象的那樣短缺。 

  愛建證券研究員吳正武認為,我國白糖價格呈現周期性波動,從2009年開始我國白糖價格走出谷底,處於周期上漲階段。白糖價格上漲的根本原因是國際和國內擴張性貨幣政策。長期看,我國糖價大周期頂部已過,但由於國內白糖供不應求狀況短期也不會改變,所以2011年下半年我國糖價回落幅度預計比較小。 

  不過,大越期貨分析師陳順平則認為,國內糖價上漲主要是受到外盤原糖期貨大漲和國內食糖現貨市場良好產銷數據的雙重影響。“即使7月5日確定政府有25萬噸中央儲備糖投放市場,也沒有擋住其繼續上行趨勢,可見,在實際供給仍是偏緊的情勢下,白糖價格進一步走高已經得到大多數投資者的認同,看多白糖已經成為市場的主流。相信在做多力量不斷推動下,白糖當能有更大的上漲空間。” 

  “糖高宗”卷土重來,對下遊產業造成瞭影響。飲料行業受到波及最大。據記者瞭解,飲料行業兩三成的成本來自於糖,糖價的上漲,必然導致飲料行業利潤下降。記者註意到,目前一些整箱汽水的批發價格悄然提升。此外,食品、乳品、罐頭、餐飲企業也面臨著糖價上漲帶來的成本壓力。如果糖價再度上漲趨勢不能得到有效遏制,未來占CPI權重最大的食品類指數仍可能繼續上行,緊縮政策仍有可能再度出臺。

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